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Prediction for CME (2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-28T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17845/-1
CME Note: CME source was an eruption from AR2871 around 2021-09-28T05:36Z. This eruption was associated with a C1.6 flare that started at 2021-09-28T05:54Z and peaked at 2021-09-28T06:34Z. From Lan Jian: there is a nice ICME on Oct 1-2. The flux rope part starts at about 12:44 on Oct 1 and sends at about 12:44 on Oct 2. I dont see any associated shock. If we need to set a start time for the sheath region, I would set at about 14:15 on Sept 30.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T14:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-01T00:27Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-09-28 12:13
 - Time at C2: 2021-09-28 07:00
 - Radial speed: 649.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S17W43
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 600.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-10-01 00:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.45 hours)

Kp  4.0 - 5.0

Lead Time: 40.25 hour(s)
Difference: -10.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-09-28T22:00Z

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